Bank CIMB Niaga ($BNGA), a prominent player in Indonesia’s banking landscape, is demonstrating a strategic recalibration, focusing on strengthening its balance sheet even as it projects a more tempered pace for credit expansion. President Director Lani Darmawan informed Katadata that while credit growth for 9M25 is anticipated to be below the industry average, the bank’s robust liquidity position positions it strongly for future opportunities.

Unpacking Credit Growth: A Measured Pace Ahead

CIMB Niaga projects its credit portfolio to expand by approximately +4.5% Year-on-Year (YoY) by the third quarter of 2025. This forecast, as outlined by Darmawan, marks a slight moderation compared to the +6.8% YoY seen in 1H25 and the +6.4% YoY recorded in 9M24. The bank’s anticipated growth trajectory currently sits below the broader industry’s expected credit expansion of +6% to +7% YoY. This measured approach suggests a focus on quality and risk management, rather than an aggressive pursuit of volume in a potentially challenging economic environment.

The Liquidity Lifeline: A Strategic Advantage for CIMB Niaga

Despite the conservative credit growth outlook, CIMB Niaga is clearly fortifying its foundation with ample liquidity, preparing to capitalize on future market shifts. Darmawan emphasized that the bank’s liquidity profile is now considerably looser, acting as a well-stocked reservoir ready to fuel credit growth when conditions become more favorable.

Loosening the Reins: LDR’s Downward Trend

A key indicator of this enhanced liquidity is the significant drop in the bank’s Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LDR). CIMB Niaga’s LDR is expected to decline to 81% by 9M25, a notable improvement from 87.3% in 1H25 and 84.3% in 9M24. A lower LDR indicates that the bank holds a greater proportion of its deposits as reserves, providing a comfortable buffer and substantial capacity for new lending without straining its funding sources. This reduction frees up capital, offering flexibility and resilience in its operations.

Powering Growth: The CASA Surge

Complementing the improving LDR, CIMB Niaga has witnessed a strong uptake in its Current Account Savings Account (CASA) balances. CASA growth is projected at +11% YoY for 9M25, maintaining the momentum from 1H25 and accelerating past the +9% YoY seen in 9M24. This surge in CASA is particularly significant because these are lower-cost deposits for the bank, directly enhancing its net interest margin and overall profitability. Darmawan attributes this positive development partly to the easing competition in third-party fund interest rates, supported by government liquidity injections to state-owned banks (Himbara) which have softened the overall funding landscape.

Investor Outlook: What These Figures Mean for $BNGA

For investors, CIMB Niaga’s latest disclosures paint a picture of a bank prioritizing stability and efficiency. While the moderated credit growth forecast might appear cautious, it is counterbalanced by a strategically strong liquidity position and robust CASA growth. This approach suggests a focus on building a sustainable, cost-efficient funding base, which can drive resilient earnings even in a dynamic economic environment. CIMB Niaga appears to be laying robust groundwork, ensuring it possesses the financial firepower to seize opportunities and navigate potential headwinds effectively, making it a compelling consideration for those evaluating Indonesian banking sector investments.