The year 2025 unfolded with amplified uncertainty, eclipsing its predecessor. From global trade disputes to domestic policy overhauls, markets contended with a dynamic landscape, driving significant shifts in commodity prices, interest rates, and equity performance.<\/p>\n
In a move that sent ripples through international markets, US President Donald Trump initiated a second chapter of the trade war in early April 2025. Implementing reciprocal tariffs, starting with a 25% levy on Canadian and Mexican imports and an additional 10% on Chinese goods, his administration signaled a broader offensive. China swiftly retaliated with equivalent measures. Although subsequent negotiations brought temporary truces, Washington’s protectionist stance extended beyond Beijing, targeting 57 other nations, including Indonesia, identified as sources of US trade deficits. This aggressive posture redefined global trade dynamics, forcing countries to re-evaluate their economic partnerships.<\/p>\n
Against a backdrop of escalating trade tensions, expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts grew increasingly complex. Despite the volatility, the Fed ultimately delivered 75 basis points (bps) in rate reductions throughout 2025<\/strong>, exceeding its December 2024 projection of 50 bps. This high global uncertainty, coupled with a discernible trend of de-dollarization<\/em>, acted as a potent catalyst for gold prices. The precious metal surged, breaching the psychological barrier of US$4,500 per ounce<\/strong> and marking an all-time high<\/em>, reflecting a staggering +70% year-to-date (YTD) gain<\/strong> by December 29, 2025. Gold solidified its role as a premier safe-haven asset.<\/p>\n Geopolitical tensions also intensified, notably with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announcing military strikes against Iran. Less than two weeks later, President Donald Trump confirmed direct US involvement, targeting three Iranian nuclear facilities, marking a significant escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict. Separately, President Trump later indicated that he and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy were nearing an agreement to end the Russia-Ukraine war, offering a glimmer of hope for de-escalation in Eastern Europe.<\/p>\n Domestically, Indonesia navigated its own period of heightened uncertainty as investors keenly awaited the policy direction of the new administration led by President Prabowo Subianto. His government embarked on a series of drastic reforms. These included the establishment of Danantara<\/em> (an investment management body) and Koperasi Desa Merah Putih<\/em> (a village cooperative scheme), significant revisions to mining royalty tariffs, the imposition of gold export duties, and a proposed coal export duty. Furthermore, the administration overhauled regulations concerning the placement of export proceeds from natural resources (DHE SDA) and, in a significant cabinet reshuffle, replaced long-serving Finance Minister Sri Mulyani with Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa<\/strong>.<\/p>\n On the monetary front, Bank Indonesia (BI) implemented an aggressive 125 bps reduction in the BI Rate<\/strong> throughout 2025. This larger cut relative to the Fed’s actions narrowed the interest rate spread between the two economies, contributing to a 4.26% YTD weakening of the Rupiah<\/strong> against the US Dollar, even as the US Dollar Index (DXY) exhibited a weakening trend for most of the year.<\/p>\n Fiscal policies saw significant adjustments. The government announced that the Value Added Tax (VAT) increase to 12% from January 1, 2025, would apply only to luxury goods, with general goods and services remaining at 11%. President Prabowo also instructed a substantial budget cut of Rp306.7 trillion<\/strong>, or 8% of the 2025 state budget. To counter economic slowdowns, Indonesia rolled out multiple economic stimulus packages totaling over Rp70 trillion. On the trade front, the US and Indonesia reached an agreement on a trade negotiation framework, promising a reduction of tariffs on Indonesian goods from 32% to 19%, with a final deal slated for January 2026. Separately, Indonesia and the European Union signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IEU-CEPA), eliminating tariffs for 80% of Indonesian products exported to Europe. Towards year-end, the government affirmed no changes to VAT policy for 2026, no new taxes or tax hikes, and no tobacco excise increase, aiming for fiscal stability.<\/p>\n Regulatory changes in the mining sector saw the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) shorten the validity period for work and budget plans (RKAB) from three years to one. The government also formalized a progressive export duty scheme for gold and considered a similar duty for coal. Nickel production targets were reportedly reduced by 34% for 2026. The year concluded with a broad commodity rally, with both gold and copper achieving all-time high prices<\/strong>, underscoring strong demand and supply dynamics.<\/p>\n The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) delivered a stellar performance in 2025, reaching an all-time high of 8,776<\/em> on December 11 and closing the year with a remarkable +22.1% YTD gain<\/strong> (+1,564 points), marking its strongest annual increase since 2014. This robust growth was primarily propelled by a surge in conglomerate stocks. The top five contributors to the IHSG’s ascent included: <\/p>\n In stark contrast, the banking sector, traditionally a pillar of IHSG growth, faced significant headwinds. The “Big 4” banks collectively underperformed: BBCA fell -17%, BMRI -11%, BBRI -7%, and BBNI -2%<\/strong>. This pressure largely stemmed from substantial foreign outflows, fueled by concerns over Indonesia’s economic growth trajectory and uncertainties surrounding the new government’s policies. Net foreign outflow from these four banking giants alone totaled a staggering Rp54.7 trillion<\/strong>, significantly outweighing the overall IHSG net foreign outflow of Rp17.1 trillion.<\/p>\n Here\u2019s a snapshot of top performers and laggards from a specific market session:<\/p>\n \ud83d\udd25 Top Gainers: DEWA +23.21%, ADMR +15.52%, SMDR +13.41%, FILM +9.83%<\/p>\n \ud83e\udd76 Top Losers: BTPS -4.00%, DSSA -2.79%, SMGR -1.87%, MYOR -1.86%<\/p>\n Amidst the market’s gyrations, a profound investment philosophy resonated: “This makes me always keep reserve cash for top-ups when the market corrects.”<\/em> This insightful quote from parahitairawan<\/a>, a voice within the Stockbit community, distills a critical market truth. Investment success, as countless experiences attest, rarely hinges solely on intellectual prowess or sheer bravery. Instead, it is a testament to unwavering patience, consistent discipline<\/strong>, and the profound ability to accept that much of the market’s behavior lies beyond our control. The ebb and flow of market prices are natural; maintaining realistic expectations<\/em> and embracing the long-term compounding process often yield the best results when investors resist the urge to overreact to every price movement. These invaluable lessons underscore a fundamental objective: not merely to conquer the market, but to cultivate stable, sustainable returns over time.<\/p>\n Parahitairawan stands as a respected investor and educator in the realm of stock investment, boasting nearly 18 years of experience<\/strong> in the capital markets. Beyond sharing insightful education via Stockbit Stream, parahitairawan is also a prolific author, known for works such as “Street Investing: A Street-Style Approach to Fundamental Stock Analysis.”<\/em> Dive deeper into his perspectives and full articles by visiting this link<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The year 2025 unfolded with amplified uncertainty, eclipsing its predecessor. From global trade disputes to domestic policy overhauls, markets contended with a dynamic landscape, driving significant shifts in commodity prices, interest rates, and equity performance. Global Headwinds and Golden Opportunities Trump’s Trade Gambit Reshapes Global Commerce In a move that sent ripples through international markets, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[985],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17956","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/search.web.id\/digest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17956","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/search.web.id\/digest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/search.web.id\/digest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/search.web.id\/digest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17956"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/search.web.id\/digest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17956\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/search.web.id\/digest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17956"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/search.web.id\/digest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17956"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/search.web.id\/digest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17956"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Geopolitical Shocks: Middle East & Russia-Ukraine<\/h3>\n
Indonesia’s Economic Metamorphosis Under a New Administration<\/h2>\n
Prabowo’s Bold Policy Strokes<\/h3>\n
Bank Indonesia’s Counter-Cyclical Cuts and Rupiah’s Resilience<\/h3>\n
Stimulus, Taxes, and Trade Deals<\/h3>\n
Commodity Currents and Sectoral Shifts<\/h3>\n
The Indonesian Stock Exchange (IHSG) in 2025: A Tale of Two Markets<\/h2>\n
Conglomerate Kings Lead the Charge<\/h3>\n
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Banking Giants Face Foreign Headwinds<\/h3>\n
Market’s Silent Lessons: Patience, Process, and Perspective<\/h2>\n
Beyond Intelligence: The Enduring Power of Discipline<\/h3>\n
Meet the Mentor: Parahitairawan<\/a><\/h3>\n