Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) released the latest presidential candidate survey in August 2022 entitled ‘Who is the 2024 PDIP Presidential Candidate?’. As a result, Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo is still the best choice.
The founder of SMRC, Saiful Mujani said, Ganjar was the most competitive candidate compared to Puan Maharani, therefore the potential to win is higher. “This data shows that if Ganjar is nominated by the PDIP, the hope for PDIP to win the presidential election is there,” said Saiful Mujani to reporters, Thursday (15/9).
Saiful explained, based on the semi-open survey format from March 2021 to August 2022, the movement of Puan’s vote was not significant, from 0.5 percent to 1 percent. Meanwhile, Ganjar moved from 8.8 percent to 25.5 percent. Prabowo from 20 percent to 16.7 percent, and Anies Baswedan from 11.2 percent to 14.4 percent.
According to Saiful, under current conditions, it will be difficult for PDIP to nominate Puan. If Puan competes with Prabowo and Anies, survey data shows that Puan is far behind and not competitive.
“The competition (Puan against Prabowo or Anies) is unfair because the gap is too big. If you have to go forward and PDIP has a target to win, then the challenge will be very tough,” said Saiful.
In the simulation of three names without Ganjar, the SMRC survey from December 2021 to August 2022 showed that Puan’s vote moved from 10.1 percent to 7.8 percent. Meanwhile, Prabowo Subianto from 40 percent to 40.2 percent, and Anies from 28.1 percent to 27.5 percent. ”If Mrs. Puan is forced (to go forward) under these conditions, the hope of PDIP to have another president will be difficult,” added Saiful.
But if PDIP nominates Ganjar, who is currently the Governor of Central Java, the result is likely that PDIP will win the 2024 presidential election.
Meanwhile, Prabowo weakened from 34.1 percent to 30.8 percent and Anies was relatively stable from 23.5 percent to 21.9 percent in the same period.
In a survey from February to March 2021, 60 percent of the people who knew Puan said they liked her. In the last survey (August 2022) it decreased to 44 percent.
This is a problem, said Saiful, because the level of public acceptance of Puan is low and tends to get weaker. While the acceptance rate for Ganjar is the highest (83 percent in the August 2022 survey).
This is consistent with its high electability rate. Anies’ acceptance rate is also high (74 percent). Compared to Prabowo (71 percent), Anies’ acceptance rate is higher. “The public acceptance gap for Puan is too big compared to the other three names (Ganjar, Prabowo, and Anies),” said Saiful.
Saiful sees that if the likeability trend is negative, it will be very difficult to open up opportunities because the more socialized it is, the more resistant the public will be. This, said Saiful, must be a very serious concern for the PDIP if they want to maintain having a president who comes from his cadres again.
This survey was conducted face-to-face on 5-13 August 2022. The population of this survey is all Indonesian citizens who have the right to vote in the general election, namely those who are 17 years old or older, or already married when the survey was conducted. From that population, 1220 respondents were selected randomly (stratified multistage random sampling). The response rate is 1053 or 86 percent. The survey’s margin of error with this sample size is estimated at 3.1 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.