The Republic Institute: Anies-AHY Duet with the Most Chance to Win
The Republic Institute survey agency stated that the Nasdem Party's voter base mostly chose Anies Baswedan as a presidential candidate. In addition, in the simulation of the presidential pair, the duo Anies Baswedan-Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY) was superior to the other pairs of candidates.
It is known that the survey in six provinces on the island of Java from August to September 2022 involved 1,200 respondents. The margin of error is 2.8 percent.
"It turns out that Mr. Surya Paloh's decision to declare Anies Baswedan as the Nasdem presidential candidate is in line with the wishes of the Nasdem grassroots. Surya Paloh's sharpness as a senior politician in reading public aspirations should be appreciated," said the main researcher of the survey institute The Republic Institute Sufyanto.
Furthermore, Sufyanto also explained the advantages of the Anies-AHY pair in various simulations. One of them, this candidate pair benefited from the positive public perception.
"Anies Baswedan is perceived as an intelligent figure who has succeeded in building DKI Jakarta, combined with the perception of Mas AHY as a young political figure who is firm, and dares to voice public aspirations as an opposition leader," explained Sufyanto.
This, he continued, is reflected in the percentage of electability of each presidential candidate. Where the electability of Anies Baswedan as a presidential candidate reached 16.9 percent, while AHY's electability as a vice presidential candidate reached 11.5 percent in second place.
In addition, said Sufiyanto, the Anies-AHY pair is solidly supported by more than 50 percent of the Democratic voter base. "More than 38 percent of the Nasdem voter base and more than 31 percent of the PKS voter base," said the former Chair of the East Java Bawaslu for the 2012-2017 period.
Responding to this, Professor of Political Science at Hasanuddin University, Prof. Muhammad emphasized that in the 2024 presidential election, the choice of the vice president will determine who will win.
“In the absence of presidential and vice-presidential candidates who have prominent electability, who is chosen as cawapres will determine which pair wins. So, be careful in choosing the vice presidential candidate,” said Prof. Muhammad, who is also the former Chairperson of Bawaslu for the 2012-2017 period.
The Deputy Secretary General of the Nasdem Party's DPP Hermawi Taslim appreciated the results of this survey. According to him, Anies Baswedan represents a young and energetic leader. This is of course in the same breath with the Democratic Party as well.
"So we are waiting for the support of other parties. Of course we are waiting for the Democrats to declare soon," he said
Head of the Strategic Communications Agency for the DPP Democratic Party, Herzaky Mahendra Putra, said that the Democrats were ready to form a coalition to win and that Java would be one of the priority areas.
"If you look at the results of this survey, Anies-AHY is indeed the best option to win the 2024 General Election, and a number of surveys have also confirmed the same thing. What is clear is that we both carry the spirit of change and improvement," he said.