Vale Indonesia (INCO) has just released its financial report for the last quarter of 2024 which presents less encouraging news. The company’s net profit reached only 7 million US dollars, experiencing a drastic decline of -51.9% QoQ and -81.6% YoY. Although the total net profit achievement for the whole of 2024 was recorded at 58 million US dollars, this figure was also below expectations as it only reached 87.7% of the existing consensus estimate. So, what is the cause behind this decline in net profit?
Increased Operating Expenses and Other Income Issues
When we dig deeper, the main factors that affect the shrinking net profit are the increase in operating expenses and losses on other revenues. Operating expenses increased significantly, driven by the opening of new pits in Pomalaa and Bahodopi. This increase was recorded at 111.4% QoQ, which is quite striking and certainly puts pressure on the company’s profitability.
On the other hand, miscellaneous income that turns from profit to loss also contributes. Vale recorded a loss of $4 million from other revenues, a far cry from the previous quarter, which still achieved a profit of $12 million.
Increased Nickel Ore Production Volume
On a positive note, despite the decline in net profit, Vale Indonesia managed to increase its production volume. In the fourth quarter, the company recorded nickel matte production of 18,528 tonnes, which was up 2.9% QoQ. Production volume during 2024 also reached 71,311 tons, up slightly by 0.8% YoY, and exceeding the initial target of 70,805 tons. Interestingly, Vale has the potential to achieve higher volumes in the next few years thanks to the opening of these new pits.
Potential in the Next Year
We can see the potential for additional sales volume of up to 1.7 million wmt of saprolite by 2025, with details of 1.4 million wmt from Bahodopi and 300,000 wmt from Pomalaa. This is an innovative move for Vale, which previously only marketed nickel in matte form.
Looking at the trend ahead, INCO’s performance recovery will be greatly influenced by several key factors: first, the trend of nickel prices in the midst of oversupply conditions; second, management efforts to carry out efficiency; and third, the growth in sales volume from the contribution of nickel ore coming from new pits.
Conclusion
Overall, although Vale Indonesia faces a major challenge with a decline in net profit at the end of 2024, there are also positive signals emerging from increased production volumes. With the right strategy and managing external factors, INCO has the opportunity to bounce back and achieve better results in the coming years. As an investor or industry observer, are you ready to witness Vale Indonesia’s fight in overcoming this challenge?