PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk (HMSP), a dominant force in the Indonesian tobacco sector, navigates a challenging landscape by bolstering its market share, even as traditional cigarette volumes experience a consistent decline. Recent data, as reported by its parent company Philip Morris International, paints a dual picture of resilience in a shrinking market and the burgeoning success of its next-generation products.
Navigating Volume Headwinds: A Resilient Performance
HMSPL’s traditional cigarette sales volume faced a year-over-year (YoY) decline of -3.7% in Q2 2025, a slight improvement from the -6.4% YoY dip observed in Q2 2024, yet a step back from the +0.6% YoY growth in Q1 2025. This trend culminated in a -1.5% YoY drop for the first half of 2025, mirroring the decline from H1 2024 and marking a third consecutive year of first-half volume contraction for the tobacco giant.
Despite these internal challenges, HMSPL’s performance shines brighter when set against the broader industry. The Indonesian tobacco market as a whole contracted by a steeper -7% YoY in Q2 2025, following a -10% YoY fall in Q2 2024. For 1H 2025, the industry saw a significant -4.3% YoY slump, contrasting with HMSPL’s more moderate -1.5% decline. This stark difference underscores Sampoerna’s ability to outperform its peers in a tightening market, akin to a ship steering steadily through a turbulent storm while others founder.
Market Share Triumph: Rising to Historic Levels
The company’s relative outperformance translated directly into a significant market share gain. HMSPL’s market share ascended to approximately ~31% in Q2 2025 and maintained this level throughout 1H 2025. This achievement is particularly noteworthy as it represents the highest market share level for HMSPL since 2019, a testament to its strategic pricing, distribution, and brand power.
This surge marks a robust recovery from the 26.8% market share recorded in Q1 2025, which itself was the lowest point since at least Q1 2014. The rebound demonstrates a strong competitive positioning, indicating that HMSPL is not just surviving but thriving by capturing a larger slice of a diminishing pie.
IQOS: The Future’s Igniting Spark
While traditional cigarette volumes saw a -2% YoY reduction in H1 2025, the narrative shifts dramatically when examining HMSPL’s next-generation product portfolio. The sales volume of IQOS, the company’s heated tobacco product, surged by an impressive +34% YoY during the same period. This phenomenal growth showcases a strategic pivot and successful adoption of reduced-risk alternatives.
The robust expansion of IQOS sales serves as a vital growth engine for HMSPL, offering a glimpse into the company’s future beyond conventional tobacco. This diversification cushions the impact of declining traditional sales and positions HMSPL at the forefront of the evolving tobacco landscape, where innovation and harm reduction are becoming increasingly critical drivers of investor value.