Indonesia’s automotive sector is navigating a challenging downturn. National car wholesales for August 2025 hit a mere 61,780 units, marking a significant 19% year-over-year (YoY) decline and extending a three-month streak of approximately 20% YoY contraction. This performance also cast a shadow over the much-anticipated GIIAS 2025 exhibition, which concluded in early August, as average monthly sales during the July-August 2025 period lagged significantly behind previous years.

Overall Market Performance: Gaikindo Reports Contraction

Weak August Sales and GIIAS Impact

The 61,780 units sold in August 2025, while showing a slight 1% month-over-month (MoM) uptick, underscore a broader deceleration in the market. The highly anticipated GIIAS 2025, held from July 24 to August 3, 2025, traditionally a sales booster, failed to ignite demand as expected. Average monthly sales across July and August 2025 settled at a subdued 61,329 units. This figure represents a sharp 17% drop compared to the 74,230 units recorded in July 2024, when GIIAS 2024 took place, signaling a substantial shift in consumer sentiment or market conditions.

YTD Performance Against Gaikindo Targets

Cumulatively, national car wholesales for the first eight months of 2025 (8M25) reached 500,952 units, registering an 11% YoY decline. This places the industry’s achievement at approximately 56-67% of Gaikindo’s ambitious full-year target of 750,000-900,000 units. For context, the industry had already achieved 65% of its 2024 target by 8M24, highlighting the current year’s slower pace and raising questions about the attainability of Gaikindo’s revised projections.

Brand Dynamics: Astra Under Pressure, Competitors Gain

Astra International’s Declining Share

Industry giant Astra International (ASII) faced significant headwinds, reporting sales volumes below the industry average in August 2025. Consequently, ASII’s market share dipped below 50%, marking its lowest monthly share in the past twelve months. This downturn was largely driven by weak performances from its key brands: both Toyota+Lexus and Daihatsu saw a pronounced 29% YoY sales decrease in August 2025. Over the 8M25 period, Toyota+Lexus experienced a 12% YoY decline, while Daihatsu plunged 25% YoY, reflecting intensified competitive pressures and shifting consumer preferences.

Suzuki and Mitsubishi’s Momentum

In contrast, several competitors demonstrated resilience. Suzuki and Mitsubishi defied the market slump, posting impressive annual sales increases in August 2025. Suzuki’s sales soared by 12% YoY, while Mitsubishi achieved a solid 5% YoY growth. Industry observers attribute this positive momentum to the favorable market reception of their newly launched models, with the Suzuki Fronx and Mitsubishi Destinator potentially capturing a larger share of the evolving consumer base. These new offerings appear to be vital catalysts, providing a much-needed lift amidst a cautious market.

Chinese Brands Hit the Brakes

The robust growth trajectory of Chinese automotive brands, which had been a notable trend, appears to have faltered. Their expansion momentum began to stall in July 2025 and continued into August. Analysts suggest this deceleration is likely a direct consequence of an escalating “price war” within the market, prompting potential buyers to adopt a “wait-and-see” approach. As brands engage in aggressive pricing strategies, consumers may delay purchasing decisions in anticipation of further discounts, thereby impacting overall sales volume for these previously fast-growing players.